This week, we await the appearance of US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. This is the most significant event this week, with renewed uncertainty over the China-US trade agreement.
Investors are also getting updates on the health of the global economy from non-countries: Germany and Japan, as we see GDP data. From the US we see inflation data on Wednesday, retail sales and industrial production on Friday. We also hear a number of federal officials.
From China, we wait for Singles Day, one of the most important shopping days, to begin on Monday, with analysts watching for any signs of the consequences of the trade war on the world’s second-largest economy.
Here’s what you need to know to start your week:
1.Trump speaks at the New York Economic Club
Trump makes some comments as he addresses the New York Economic Club, as market hopes for the signing of the first phase of the trade deal with China rise.
Trump said on Friday that the two sides have not reached the cancellation of tariffs on each other, as China hoped. In the wake of those comments, markets returned to uncertainty about the trade war among the biggest economists, and doubts about the end of the 16-month-old war have cast a shadow over global economic growth.
Trump’s comments came a day after Chinese officials stepped out of the market to announce that the two countries had eliminated tariffs under the “first phase of the deal.”
US stock markets fell after Trump’s comments, and the dollar fell against the yen, halting the strong rally that started on the basis of trade hopes, and sent key indices to record highs.
Markets will hear Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony on economy, inflation and monetary policy as part of testimony before the US Joint Economic Committee in Congress in Washington on Wednesday and before the House Budget Committee on Thursday.
Expectations of a first return to confirm the temporary cessation of economic easing plans, after the Fed cut interest rates for the third time this year, after a number of meetings.
Market watchers could hear eight Fed officials speaking this week, including John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve in New York, who said on Friday that the US economy was well positioned and reiterated his view that interest rates were holding at appropriate levels on dealing. With risks to the economy.
3. US economic data
A new round of US economic data has begun to be closely monitored, as markets are now trying to gauge the impact of trade war on the future of economic growth and trade conflict.
Looking at the CPI figures for Wednesday, October. Year-on-year growth is expected to reach 2.4%, while the sub-base stands at 1.7%. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, hovers around 1.6%, well below its 2% target, and the Fed set this target before the global financial crisis.
On Friday, the markets carry figures: retail sales, industrial production, which will shed light on the consumer, and continue to drive growth for the now declining manufacturing sector against the backdrop of the US-China trade war.
4. Update on global growth
Several countries (including Germany and Japan) will release an update of Q3 GDP figures in the coming days.
Markets will see German figures on Thursday, showing whether the euro zone is slipping into recession in the third quarter.
In the UK, the economy is expected to show on Monday avoiding a recession after posting a 0.2% drop in the previous quarter. However, it is clear that the uncertainty is set to continue, which prompted the Bank of England last week to signal the possibility of a rate cut in the event of a Brexit.
Japan also releases third quarter GDP figures on Thursday, with expectations for a slowdown from the previous quarter.
5.Alibaba waiting for singles day
Alibaba Group’s 24-hour shopping day begins on Monday, with strong deals, discounts and a performance by American singer Taylor Swift as she tries to set a new record for bachelor day discounts.
Alibaba stands at a crossroads this year, after one of its founders and chief executive, Jack Ma, resigned last September and is looking to raise $ 15 billion by selling shares in Hong Kong this month.
Companies also recorded sales of $ 30 billion through their platforms on Singles Day last year, and this comes much more compared to the sales of the two superstitious, which amounted to $ 7.9 billion. However, sales growth was the lowest in the company’s 10-year history, with growth of only 27%, ranging from 40% to 100%.
“This is likely against the backdrop of the overall slowdown in the Chinese economy,” said Jennifer Yi of PwC China. “So maybe we won’t see a jump in growth this year, even if people buy goods.”
The PwC expects a modest rise for bachelors’ day this year, and is slowed by continued macroeconomic uncertainty, which has weighed on consumer confidence.